Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday November
10th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today’s NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times
in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal
through Wednesday.
Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to
be mostly normal through Wednesday.
Click https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif for
today’s latest estimated planetary Kp Index, updated every three
hours.
Click http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 88 through Wednesday.
There are three active regions on the visible disk with 11 tiny and
small sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal
through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is
likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is
likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because
of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset
is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
17, and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is
likely to be less reliable and shorter in duration.
Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed
stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat
less frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward
orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in
triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours
coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high
speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe
geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when
the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF
field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot
Solar wind speed is likely to be at mostly near background levels
through Wednesday.
The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet through Wednesday.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 65 minutes earlier and
daylength is 114 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.
Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the northern
polar region is rapidly declining due to steadily increasing polar
night effects.
Click https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-4-en.php
for today’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z,
2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
for today’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.
Click
https://wwwbis.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu/
for today’s SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
updated at 1230Z daily.
Click https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion for
today’s SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and
1230Z daily.
Click https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 for today’s
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found
at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net
